Demand-Supply Gap Analysis

In India, a substantial growth rate has been showed in the production of goat meat and milk on the last decade. The goat meat production has doubled (9.3% to 18.3%) and goat milk production has shown a growth rate of 31.53% during the last decade. The country stands first in goat milk production and is the second largest meat producer in the world sharing 26.31% goat milk and 10.41% goat meat production. Besides meat and milk, goats also produce good quality skin, valuable Pashmina fibre and manure. The goat sector imparts nearly 14,500 crores to farming or agricultural economy of the country that comprises of meat (6851 crores), milk (4588 crores), meat skin (648 crores), etc. which accounts for around 8 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from livestock sector. In addition, the goat sector generates about 4% rural employment and about 20 million small and marginal farmers‟ and landless labourers‟ families depend on goats for their livelihood partially or completely. Even then we are not able to meet the increased domestic demand of the products and tap the potential of the sector in its full capacity by using the available opportunities.

Goat meat has a number of health benefits and more nutritional value than other red meat. It contains Less calories, low fat amount, saturated fat and cholesterol than other meats. Goat meats are usually rich in iron when compared to similar meats such as beef, pork, lamb and chicken. Relatively, fresh goat meat contains high potassium substance with lower sodium levels. The meat availability for a person in India is just about 15g /person /day versus the ICMR recommendation of around 30g /person /day. So, it is require to improve the production on goat meat in India.

Analyzed from the point of required nutrition, as per WHO standards, the daily requirement of protein is 63 gm per day. In a research study, they analysed that the average protien availability in Indian diet conditions are 50.75 gm/day/person (approx.) for vegetarian population, and about 55.25 gm/day/person (approx.) for non-vegetarian population. However, the average shortage amount of protein requirement is nearly 12 gm for vegetarian and about 8 gm for non-vegetarian.

As per IGAR and BAHS data, goat population in the country is expected to reach to 216 million in 2050 with milk and skin production to 9.8 and 0.25 million tonnes, respectively. Urbanization, enhanced income and strong preference to goat meat are some of the major contributing elements for development in goat meat production. Looking at 14 kg per animal carcass weight and about 45% of goats useable for slaughter, the production of goat meat will increase to nearly 1.4 million tonnes in 2050. As per NSSO reports, the consumption of goat meat/ mutton per capita per month has raised from 53 gram to 61 gram during the period 2003-04 to 2009-10. Considering 3% growth in per capita for goat meat consumption, the need or demand for goat meat by 2050 would be around 2.15 million tonnes. (NIANP, 2013).

Moreover, the population in India is expected to get increase by 34% through 2050. The Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) recommended some dietary levels of livestock products for about 1.7 billion people. As per their consideration, the livestock sector ought to produce about 186 millon tons of milk and nearly 19 million tons of meat per annum. It means the current production level of milk and meat would have to raise or grow by 1.5 and 3 times respectively. With the same resource base of water and land, it is going to be a tough challange to meet this feed demand of this vast livestock. Hence, instead of increasing the animals number, it is better to improve the genetics through with breed improvement programme which seems a better strategy to meet the demand for animal protein.